Tariffs on the Ground: A Conversation with a Trade Compliance Expert
An inside look into how ongoing tariffs are reshaping American supply chains.
In March 2025, as tariff debates intensified following recent delays on Canadian and Mexican imports, we (U) had an opportunity to discuss the direct implications of these economic measures with Kelly (K), a trade compliance specialist with nearly 20 years of experience. For confidentiality and security purposes, Kelly's full identity and employer details remain private, but their expertise in navigating complex trade compliance scenarios offers a critical perspective on what these tariffs mean for businesses and consumers alike.
Kelly's role focuses specifically on trade compliance, giving their firsthand experience with the intricacies—and unpredictability—of managing tariffs within supply chains. As businesses across the United States brace for potential new costs, disruptions, and strategic shifts, Kelly sheds light on what's happening behind the scenes.
U: To start, could you briefly introduce yourself and your company, explaining what part of the industry you work in? Is your role specifically tied to supply chain management, or do you have a broader responsibility within the company?
K: I work in trade compliance for a company. I can't get too deep into specifics, as I don't want it to seem I'm speaking for the company I'm employed by. I've been in the business almost 20 years now. My role is specifically tied to trade compliance.
U: With the recent delay of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, how do you think this will affect the current supply chain? Do these changes create temporary relief, or do they just slow the increase in prices, especially for consumers?
K: I think it would be a slow increase in prices. You might see some additional product-origin diversification, as we saw in Trump's first administration. He's already stated it's being evaluated again in April.
U: What do you see as the immediate impact of this tariff delay on the market? Does it help stabilize any specific sectors, or is it more about preventing further price hikes?
K: If you're referencing the stock market, I might not be the best source for it. We did see the stock market decrease with each tariff suggested. If you're talking about as a consumer, we've got 6-8 tariffs/investigations in the works, so it's not solely about origin. While Mexico and Canada tariffs are delayed, we still had Chinese tariffs last week and Aluminum/Steel import tariffs this week. We're far from being out of the woods.
U: How much of the tariff impact do you think is reversible once these measures are lifted or adjusted? Will prices return to normal quickly, or is this a long-term shift for many industries?
K: That's truly an unknown in my eyes. It's if industries that have had to pass on costs to the consumer decide to roll them back. I would hope that would be the case. There are some shipping lanes that take 2-3 weeks to bring products to the US. And then I would imagine that until the inventory of a good affected by tariffs has been depleted, a consumer wouldn't see the price drop. So if one is expecting it to drop overnight, they would be disappointed.
U: From a supply chain perspective, what’s more challenging right now: absorbing the cost of tariffs, or adjusting to the uncertainty of these tariff delays and the shifting political landscape?
K: The uncertainty and shifting political landscape, in my eyes. It was terrible but manageable under Trump's first administration, as there was a little breathing room between announcements. You can't predict exactly what he's going to do or how CBP might implement it, but you can make every effort to chart out how it might impact the business. Last week, for example, our team estimated the potential business impact for Mexico/Canada shipments. It went into effect Tuesday. Then, Wednesday, Trump walked it back starting on Friday. Those shipments imported Tuesday through Thursday still had tariffs applied, with no retroactive exemption.
U: Given that these tariff delays are only temporary, what kind of adjustments do you anticipate businesses in your industry making? Will companies adjust their strategies now, or is it better to wait and see what happens after April 2nd?
K: I think anything that had a foreign importer (usually a merchandiser) into the US will pivot to having their US purchaser become the importer shortly after the tariffs come into effect. I think some companies are likely developing a wait-and-see attitude but also exploring all potential avenues.
U: How do large corporations versus smaller businesses respond to tariff changes? Do larger companies have the resources to absorb the costs or find workarounds, while smaller ones struggle more?
K: I don't really know the difference in my experience. I would hope they had a robust supply chain team that explored the options with their business teams.
U: Are we likely to see a permanent shift in supply chain strategies as a result of these tariffs, or do you think most businesses will return to pre-tariff methods once the situation stabilizes?
K: Using the tariffs enacted during Trump's first administration as an example, there were few changes during Biden's administration. Companies appeared to diversify their supply chains away from China and will likely continue with the additional 20% tariff on Chinese goods implemented last week.
U: What do you think is the biggest misconception about the impact of these tariffs on the supply chain and consumer prices? How do you think this will play out in the coming months?
K: The biggest misconceptions are twofold. The first is that companies won't pass the cost onto the customers. It might not be the full cost increase, but businesses will likely pass at least some of the cost on to the consumer. The second is that tariffs are a tax on the countries we import from. That's not the case. Importers pay the cost. It hurts the US consumer more than the exporting countries.
U: Looking ahead, do you foresee any lasting changes to how businesses will engage with global suppliers, especially from Canada and Mexico, once the tariff delay ends? How are companies preparing for potential reintegration of these tariffs after April 2nd?
K: I imagine there would certainly be tensions between suppliers and US companies purchasing products. Sure, suppliers understand that US importers are at the mercy of the current administration. However, it would be good for these companies to begin submitting comments when or if they can on ongoing investigations to provide a voice for those who will be most affected by the impact—consumers. Companies likely have already done a cost analysis based on what has been ordered to understand the impact of additional tariffs on their products.
Kelly’s insights illustrate the complex reality facing businesses amid a rapidly shifting tariff landscape. The current climate of uncertainty presents significant challenges, demanding constant adaptation and strategic reassessment. Although the recent tariff delays have provided temporary relief, businesses remain cautious, awaiting clarity after the upcoming April review. Kelly underscores the critical role of proactive advocacy by businesses, emphasizing that tariffs ultimately affect American consumers directly, often through higher prices and reduced purchasing power. Understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating the evolving trade environment effectively.
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